人口数据显示，房价3年后将迎来大跌！

荆门房天下  2016-10-10 09:07

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中国的房地产RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">掩藏着巨大的泡沫，世人皆知。但这个泡沫到底有多大，却很难去量化。近，各城市相继出台限购政策抑制房价暴涨，于是，有一些分析人士据此认为中国房价在“挤泡沫”的政策干预下，很可能在近期会迎来暴跌。房价的泡沫破灭，似乎只是一个时间问题，然而，这个大泡沫还能支撑多久呢？

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">回答这个问题之前我们需要知道到底刚需的量有多大，在了解刚需的前提之下，我们才有可能去讨论泡沫这个话题。众所 ，RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">中国是一个把“有车有房”与“结婚”紧密联系到一起的国度，因此，婚姻和购房在我们这里先天就有一种强烈的相关性RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。如果我们把适婚年龄的人视为购房的潜在客户，那么，我们可以通过观察近几十年来的人口数据来推测这个问题的答案。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">简略回顾中国建国以来的人口变化情况。RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">新中国历史上出现过三次人口生育高潮RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，分别在：1954 年，1963 年，1987年。新中国成立后，轮人口生育高峰出现于1954年，高达2232 万人，此后逐渐减少，低时段在三年自然灾害时期。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">我国第二轮人口生育高峰出现在1962到1973年。期间，每年都维持着 2400万到2700万的生育人口。中国出生的人口达到3.14 亿人，可以说是人口爆炸。这3亿人出生后对中国社会的影响是巨大的。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">他们上小学、中学、大学时，也正值中国经济逐渐加速的阶段。1962年起出生的人群从1984年开始陆续进入结婚生育期，而其顶峰出现在1987年。这一年，中国出生人口2549万。也刚好在1980年代后半期这一时期，中国轮人口出生高峰所带来的经济增长，也逐渐放缓。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">而在这段时间人口迅速的增加，正是RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">60后的“婴儿潮”一代集中结婚生育的结果，这造成中国第三轮人口出生高峰，1985到1993年RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，每年出生人口都超过2100 万。当年出生的这一部分人口，现在正处于23到31岁阶段，正是适婚年龄。RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">他们大多处于事业上升期和结婚集中期，消费能力日渐增加、消费愿望旺盛。而其父母辈RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，也即主要是“60后”这一代人，现在已经50来岁，正在从中年向老年缓慢过度，他们RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">手中大多持有不止一套房产RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">也就是说，RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">1985到1993年这时间段出生的人目前有可能具有购房的“刚需”，因为适婚和事业上升期两个原因相叠加，他们非常需要稳定的居住环境RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，尤其是前一点，成为主要原因。如果参考中国妇联的《婚姻家庭调查报告》，可知中国年青人平均婚姻年龄为26岁。我们取1985到1993年龄段的“婴儿潮”人群的中间值，则为1989年出生，这群人年龄满26岁适婚年龄的时候，正好是2015年，即去年。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">那么，按结婚购房的一般需求来看，2011年到2019年这一段都会是高峰期，因为当年集中出生的人刚好会扎堆结婚。RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">在2015年这种购房刚需会达到高峰，房价也会高。之后则是民众购房意愿逐年递减RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。4年之后，购房刚需将会降落到历史的新低点。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">而房价的实际走势，在今年以前也基本符合这个推测。但问题在于，如果购房者仅仅是刚需的话，那么这种分布会比较平均，并且在2015年迎来一个小的峰值之后，购房需求会缓慢下降，恢复正常。但是我们看到的实际数据是，2016年的房价呈现不正常的暴涨。按理说，第三次婴儿潮出生的青年男女已经逐渐完成了对刚需购房的消化，RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2016年，本应是房屋成交量和价格上涨放缓，至少应该属于趋于平稳的一年。但实际的情况，与我们的估计相差过远RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">因此，今年的暴涨和购房刚需的关联很小，让房价上涨的因素中，刚需所占的比例已经非常次要。而主要的因素，首先肯定是RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">货币超发和资产荒共同造成的不动产资产溢价的现象RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，这方面可以参看我国十年来M2惊人的增量，我就不再多言。这一因素直接造成大笔资金流入楼市。RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">第二个因素则可能是另一种“伪刚需”购房，即适婚年龄年青人的“换房”需求RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">年轻人的工作与生活并非静态，而是呈现动态。尤其是现在RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">三线以下城市工作和生存环境与一线差距日益增大RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。如今，很多小地方的青年倾向于卖掉家乡的房产，凑足首付，然后来到大城市购房之后工作打拼。据我们小范围的调研，很多老家在二三线的青年人，会倾向于把老家的房子卖掉一两套，在北京南五环边上支付一个小套间的首付，然后自己还月供。这种现象也造成了一部分购房“散户”入场，为房价恐慌式上涨加了一把火。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">简言之，此轮RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">房价异常上涨几乎没有刚需基础，它一方面是一种货币现象RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，即多年来宽松货币政策积累之下的必然后果。第二，暴涨RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">凸显的矛盾是一线城市和小城市无论在生存条件、发展机会等各方面的巨大差距RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，造成了小地方人甩卖房产，设法将资产屯入一线或二线大城市。

RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">在第三次婴儿潮出生的人悉数结婚成家购房之后，中国的房屋刚需将会跌到令人吃惊的低水准RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">。尤其是在2018到2019年以后。因为到时几乎每个家庭都有一套以上的房产，房屋过剩现象会变得更为明显。因此，剩下的问题不再是购房，而变成了怎样用手中的房子换更好的房子。RDER-: 0px;BORDER-RIGHT: 0px;WHITE-SPACE: normal;WORD-SPACING: 0px;BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;PADDING-: 0px;FONT: bold 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;PADDING-LEFT: 0px;MARGIN: 0px;BORDER-LEFT: 0px;WIDOWS: 1;LETTER-SPACING: normal;PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">不久之后，房地产将会彻底成为击鼓传花的游戏RD-SPACING: 0px;TEXT-TRANSFORM: none;FLOAT: none;COLOR: rgb(0,0,0);FONT: 14px/26px 宋体, simsun, sans-serif, Arial;WIDOWS: 1;DISPLAY: inline !important;LETTER-SPACING: normal;BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255);TEXT-INDENT: 28px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">，风险也将大幅提升。

房天下APP优惠多，速度快

买好房，就上房天下fang.com